Trump 2.0 ushers in a new era of isolationism, which, coupled with the rise of the BRICS, could lead to economic decline for the United States.
Nachiket Midha
Amid widespread fearmongering and doomsday rhetoric on the internet following Trump’s election win, what remains overlooked is how a Trump White House will interact with intergovernmental organisations such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) through its foreign policy endeavours. With Trump’s hawkish policy on China and his renewed push for exorbitant tariffs, it remains uncertain if and how the US might start to isolate itself from the world's major growing economies and over 40 percent of the world’s population.
BRICS: Strengthening Economic Ties Across the Global South
BRICS is not a mere facade of an economic alliance. These countries have made a concerted effort over the past decade to foster collaboration amongst countries from the Global South, especially in the areas of global trade and economic development. This is also evident from their outreach efforts to countries beyond the BRICS bloc. The current members perceive the two key initiatives that BRICS offers — an international financing bank and a transnational payments system — as alternatives to the Western systems and structures that have governed global trade for decades.
The first of these is a concrete alternative to the IMF — the New Development Bank has already approved 32 billion USD worth of infrastructure projects across four continents in just its seventh year of operation. The second is an alternative international payment method for member nations called the BRICS Cross-Border Payments Initiative (BCBPI) — akin to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a platform for handling international cross-country payments. BCBPI has been in the making for a decade and was solidified at the latest BRICS+ summit held in Kazan, Russia. This summit was particularly significant as the organisation expanded its membership to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates — the first expansion since South Africa joined in 2010.
Moving Beyond the West: Bretton Woods and Its Contradictions
Some observers attribute these countries’ interest in joining BRICS in part to their frustration with the Bretton Woods System. The Bretton Woods System was a product of post-World War II liberal internationalism that created institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank as a new economic and international framework for global cooperation. While these observers claim that BRICS, like the Bretton Woods system, is a very neoliberal institution, they often forget that BRICS signifies an agency mechanism for these countries. The member states believe that their strategic partnership can advance the group’s commitment to the “promotion of peace, a more representative, fairer international order, [and] a reinvigorated and reformed multilateral system.” In other words, BRICS helps create a space where these nations do not feel that they are at a disadvantage. The BRICS nations have held a powerful position in the global economy since at least the turn of the century; they seek not only a more prominent seat at the table but also the power to shape the rules of their participation within the realm of the global economy.
The Trump Challenge: Tariffs and Tension
This expression of global economic interests is a clear attempt to diversify the international order. However, the Trump administration may find it difficult to deal with BRICS and, by extension, China. Despite Trump’s stated admiration for Putin and his promise to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, engagement with BRICS will remain tricky because China is in many ways the organisation’s central rule-maker. With its high GDP (PPP) and large population, China is the largest economic force behind BRICS, which is why BRICS’s flagship New Development Bank is headquartered in Shanghai.
Trump’s tariff plans could potentially strain relationships with major economies, including BRICS member states. For instance, he plans to hike the tariff on Chinese goods to 60 percent. This could derail the growth objectives of BRICS economies because China is the most important member in terms of economic force. Trump’s victory has therefore provided momentum to de-globalisation, which would hurt not only the US but also Europe, engendering fears that de-globalisation might end up creating economic and geopolitical blocs dividing the East and the West. The combination of BRICS’ emergence as a strong geopolitical and economic force and Trump’s tariff plans could end up isolating the US and, by extension, Western economies from the new world order. Further evidence of this was seen in the President-elect’s recent statement about the BRICS nations on November 30, in which he said the “...idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these countries…or, they will face 100% Tariffs.”
China's desire to lead the change towards a multilateral world order through significant initiatives and platforms, like BRICS+, is also reflected by President Xi’s willingness to improve relations with other prominent geopolitical powers such as India. India and China form a major growth bloc and demographic component within the BRICS, and with BRICS expanding power and influence, it will be challenging for the new White House to ignore them without risking harm to their interests. Trump’s anti-China economic rhetoric made through promises of high tariffs is a step towards this isolation and risks souring relations with the states that make up BRICS+.
Navigating a Fragmented World Order
Trump's second White House is expected to maintain a strong stance against China. This is also evident in the composition of Trump's new cabinet. Former senator Marco Rubio, a leading figure in the anti-China camp, is poised to take on a central role in foreign policy as the Secretary of State. Rubio has been vocal about rebalancing the US-China relationship and addressing Chinese influence, especially in areas like digital apps and education. Trump's pick for National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, shares a similar hawkish approach toward China. While figures like Elon Musk, with his ties to China through Tesla, may bring a more nuanced perspective, the overall policy direction will likely remain firmly adversarial.
Considering China’s prominence in the global economy, Trump and his cabinet are on the road to creating a wall of isolation against BRICS and a potential new world order. As BRICS evolves into a more cohesive economic alliance with increasing global relevance, its impact on the existing world order cannot be ignored. Experts argue this may end badly unless the Trump administration makes a serious effort to appease BRICS member states to maintain its position as a rule-maker and global economic power. Furthermore, BRICS is poised to redefine the rules of global trade and finance, creating a parallel framework that challenges the dominance of Western-led institutions. Therefore, the path forward demands careful navigation.
While BRICS members seek greater financial autonomy and trade diversification, they remain integral to the global economy. If the US refuses to adapt to this shifting landscape, it risks ceding economic leadership to an alliance that is steadily gaining momentum. To maintain its position on the global stage, the Trump administration must reconsider its approach, focusing less on isolation and more on forging pragmatic partnerships that recognise the realities of an emerging multipolar world.
