Autumn Perkey | News Contributor
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine persists, Georgia, Belarus, and North Korea have demonstrated increased sympathy and support for Russia. North Korea, Belarus, and Georgia have each showcased violent and vocal support, including through supplying troops to assist Russia, prosecuting Ukrainian sympathisers, and appeasing Russia to reduce the threat of invasion. The conflict in Ukraine has also exacerbated tensions in border states, throughout Eastern Europe, and in parts of Asia.
Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine led to one of the biggest intrastate conflicts since World War II, according to the Associated Press. Over the course of the war thus far, Ukraine has gained ground in Russia near Snagost in the Kursk region with hopes of pressuring Russia into a peace settlement or focusing Russian troops toward an Eastern deployment. According to a Ukrainian commander, they have gained control of roughly 1,200 square kilometre and 93 villages within Russia. One year into the conflict, a stalemate occurred with Russia slowly gaining ground, but at extreme costs. Given the confirmation of North Korean troops in the Kursk region, Belarus’s prosecution of Ukrainian sympathisers, and Georgia’s recent election of pro-Russia candidates, escalations seem likely.
In Belarus, crackdowns on Ukrainian sympathisers have increased amid the continued conflict. In November 2024, Belarus arrested several hundred of its own citizens for sympathising with Ukraine. According to the Associated Press, of the 1,671 Belarusians detained, “at least 200…have been given prison sentences ranging from one to 25 years.” This recent effort follows previous crackdowns pre-invasion amidst the 2020 election of Lukashenko, during which security services conducted anti-riot drills and arrested 65,000 citizens in response to massive protests. Lukashenko’s crackdown was the result of his harsh authoritarian policies.
As Belarus instigates further crackdowns on those sympathetic to Ukraine, increased imprisonments and human rights abuses have drawn international attention. As of September 2024, Belarus has freed only 110 political prisoners, leaving at least 1,300 still behind bars—not including those arrested during the 2020 election. The United Nations has requested the release of several individuals imprisoned, including Ryhor Kastusiou, the leader of the Belarusian Popular Front, who was detained in 2021 and is being deprived of proper medical care for cancer. Belarus’s behavior toward political prisoners continues a long history of human rights abuses. If Belarus is left unchecked by either the United Nations or Western forces, it is unlikely Belarus’s behavior will change. Given Belarus’s previous support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it is unlikely any attempts to appear diplomatic towards the United States or NATO are genuine.
Continuing the trend of increasing support for Russia, Georgia’s government has now adopted a vocal pro-Russia stance. This pivot is surprising and contradicts popular opinion in Georgia as over 80 percent of Georgians polled support European integration. Aligning with a rogue superpower with widespread disapproval in the region runs counter to the majority’s preferences.
This recent shift occurred after Georgia’s parliamentary election. Messaging from the Georgian Dream Party, which came to power in 2012, framed “angering Moscow” as a risk to Georgia. According to the Washington Post, the message became “Align with the West and suffer Ukraine’s fate.”
The involvement of North Korea in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine also risks further escalation. In June 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defence pact. NATO and U.S. intelligence confirms North Korean troops’s participation in the ongoing conflict. Sabrina Singh, Deputy Press Secretary for the Department of Defense, told Newsweek that “By bringing in another foreign country into the battlefield, by bringing in over 11,000 DPRK soldiers into the fight, that is an escalatory action.” President Zelensky has said that most North Korean forces have been killed, acting as “cannon fodder” in the ongoing conflict.
North Korea’s support, Belarus’s punishment, and Georgia’s lean toward Russia pose escalatory risks in a currently deadlocked war.
Given Russia’s escalation and the presence of North Korean troops, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, lobbied former President Biden for the approval of the use of Storm Shadow missiles. Along with the previous U.S. aid package, with confirmation of North Korea’s involvement, in November 2024, Biden approved the use of long-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems), also known as Storm Shadow missiles, to strike inside Russia. The entanglement of regional allies risks further escalation and raises the question of what Ukraine’s allies can do to prevent North Korea’s intervention.
Georgia offers an important lesson for states seeking to mitigate the risk of Russian expansionism. Georgia’s embrace of Russia has led to the U.S. reevaluating bilateral ties with Georgia. The U.S. has also frozen financial aid and ended any close military cooperation with the country. Georgia’s policy shift toward Russia might have been driven by NATO and the European Union’s exclusion of Georgia and Ukraine. Despite the threat of Russia looming for the last decade, a lack of response from NATO or the European Union will likely strengthen Georgia’s turn to Russia. Georgia’s change might necessitate a rethinking of NATO and U.S. strategy in the region.
The lack of response from NATO will likely embolden North Korea to future participation and escalation given that lack of military response. Along with this, inaction by the United States will likely empower North Korea to continue gaining nuclear capabilities as there are no consequences for North Korea’s engagement.
While Belarus has released 207 civilians from imprisonment so far, it is estimated that over 1,000 remain behind bars, even after the United Nations released statements condemning the imprisonment and saying that Belarus “should not be considered a safe country for anyone who ever showed disagreement with the government or its policies”.
The accumulation of the pro-Russia stances of North Korea, Belarus, and Georgia serves as potential tipping points in an already strife conflict. With the recent election in the United States and rumors of the country pulling out of NATO, we are likely to see continued instability and increasing support for Russia.
