Will the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah be the beginning of the end of the war in the Middle East?
Roy Shinar Cohen | News Contributor
For over a year, the Middle East has been engulfed by war. However, the conflict that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions may finally be coming to an end. Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire on November 27, easing the tensions at one of the war’s fronts. It is still unclear, however, if this is a one-off event that will soon fail or the first in a series of ceasefires which might end current hostilities. Either way, the agreement likely means that Israeli focus and international scrutiny will now return to Gaza.
The fighting on the Lebanon front began on October 8, 2023. The morning after Hamas’s October 7 attack, as Israel worked to regain most of its territorial integrity, Hezbollah began launching rockets across the Israel-Lebanon border. Behind their limited actions lay the strategic goal of forcing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to split its focus and constrain its assault on Gaza. In Israel, however, the move was seen differently. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, believed Hezbollah planned an attack similar to that of October 7. To prevent this, Israel intended to launch a major pre-emptive strike.
On October 11, 2023, only four days into the war, Israeli warplanes were in the air awaiting an order to strike Hezbollah. Instead, after US President Biden “told the Israeli prime minister to stand down and think through the consequences of such an action,” the planes returned to their bases. This was the first in a long series of diplomatic and military efforts by the United States to prevent the expansion of the war.
Pressured by the US, Israel changed its plans. Instead of a major offensive, Israel opted for limited strikes against Hezbollah. This back-and-forth dynamic, however, gradually spiralled throughout the later months of 2023 and most of 2024.
The conflict escalated into a full-blown war after July 28, when a Hezbollah rocket landed on a football field in the Golan Heights and killed 12 Israeli teenagers. In retaliation for this attack, Israel assassinated Fuad Shukr, the most high-ranking Hezbollah official killed until that point in the war. A month and a half later, Israel intensified the war when it detonated Hezbollah’s pagers on September 17. This attack killed a dozen people, injured nearly 3,000, destroyed a critical communication method and spread panic in Hezbollah and Lebanon. Ten days later, Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and assassinated most of the organisation’s leadership.
The series of Israeli attacks signified a strategic shift and were designed to enhance its strategic balance. With it, Israel launched a ground operation in Lebanon on 1 October 2024, just under a year after President Biden successfully prevented the first Israeli preemptive strike.
Frequent diplomatic negotiations since October 2023 between Israel and Hezbollah to end the war had failed. Yet, after Israel’s recent invasion, mediators had a renewed sense of urgency to end the fighting. The United States’ lead negotiator, Amos Hochstein, has repeatedly spoken with Israeli and Lebanese leaders to hash out an agreement.
Hochstein’s efforts bore fruit in November 2024 and the negotiations aligned with critical actors’ interests. Israel’s relative success in weakening Hezbollah, as well as its military’s fatigue, pushed its leaders towards a cease-fire. This has collided with Trump’s election victory, and according to the Washington Post, Israel was preparing the cease-fire as a “gift” to President Trump. Additionally, following Trump’s victory, Iran has also sought de-escalation, postponing its retaliation to Israel’s latest attack and approving the Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire deal.
With this alignment of interests, the Biden administration’s final diplomatic push succeeded on November 26th. The agreement is modelled on UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon War. The ceasefire’s first stage will last for 60 days, during which a long-term solution will be discussed. Throughout the 60 days, Israel will withdraw from Lebanon, Hezbollah will withdraw from southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese army will take position in the country’s south.
The main issue leading up to the agreement was Israel’s demand to have the right to enforce the agreement with force if it is breached. This appears to have been resolved as, in his statement to the Israeli public, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “In full agreement with the United States, we are maintaining full operational freedom. If Hezbollah will breach the agreement and try to restock its supplies — we will attack.”
The ceasefire came into effect at 4:00 AM local time on November 27. However, less than a week after the agreement was made, both sides violated the ceasefire. By December 2, Israel had repeatedly fired missiles into Lebanon and Hezbollah had launched rockets into Israel. Although the ceasefire was only negotiated for a 60-day period, the agreement is meant to last for months or years as UN resolution 1701 did, and initial tension is expected in these conditions.
An important point to note regarding this deal is its detachment from Gaza. For the majority of this war, Hezbollah has demanded an all-encompassing ceasefire agreement that will include Lebanon and Gaza, but, after Israel’s significant blows, it has quietly walked back that stance. In the meantime, Gaza remains in ruins as the Israeli offences throughout it continue and the Israeli hostages remain captive. In fact, it appears as if the Israeli government is deliberately waiting for President Trump and setting the groundwork for a prolonged military occupation of northern Gaza. If this is the case, the international community should not be surprised to see a unilateral Israeli declaration that the war is over without withdrawing from the besieged territory.
More than 13 months into this war, its partial end is finally in sight. While a full deal and justice for all victims remain elusive for now, bombs have stopped falling on Lebanon and northern Israel. However, expectations should be managed. Both sides have already violated the ceasefire and it could break down completely. More importantly, though, ending the war’s first front, Gaza, is still far away. Yet, perhaps the election of a new American president, and changes in Hezbollah’s and Iran’s stance and thinking in Israel will bring new positive developments.
