Roy Shinar Cohen | News Contributor
The toppling of the Assad regime has been a blow to Iran and Russia and will likely shift the balance of power in the region in favour of the United States and its allies, including Israel.
On December 8 2024, the Assad regime was toppled in a surprise attack by an Islamist insurgent group, adding to the uncertainty in the Middle East. The October 7 attack and the ensuing multi-front war changed the region dramatically. While Syria was relatively inactive during this time, this recent regime change may make it a most interesting and influential actor in the near future.
A surprise attack by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, accomplished what over a decade of civil war could not: revolution in Syria. Within days of starting their offensive, HTS captured Aleppo and Hama, advanced to Homs and, finally, on December 8, took control of Damascus, the Syrian capital. In Damascus, HTS faced minimal resistance from the Syrian army. Avoiding capture, President Assad quietly fled to Russia while his top aide escaped to Lebanon.
What comes next for Syria is still unknown. Jolani, who founded HTS and planned and led its incursion to Damascus, is affiliated with Al-Qaeda and ISIS and is accused of committing many human rights abuses, including massacres, kidnapping, and torture. In recent years, HTS has taken a somewhat more pragmatic stance by breaking with Al-Qaeda, yet it is still a designated terrorist organisation by the US, UK, EU, and UN. So far, HTS has attempted to present a reformed appearance and get sanctions lifted and has attempted to convince Western diplomats it has changed. In the meantime, as the new regime takes shape, many rejoice in the freedom from Assad’s decades-long rule as a brutal and hated dictator.
The initial consequences of this regime change are already being felt across the country, the region and the world. On one side, Assad’s allies, such as Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, have suffered a blow and are reassessing their next moves. On the other side, the former regime’s enemies, including Turkey, Israel and the United States, are taking advantage of the situation to better their balance of force posture.
The most direct consequences of the regime change, however, are for the Syrian people. The new regime’s policies, which are still in the early stages of formation, and the extent of HTS’s approval across Syria are unclear. If HTS manages to unite different Syrian factions and lead a government that will benefit all, it may succeed in creating a stable regime. Such conditions could allow the Syrian people to thrive after decades of oppression and years of war. Furthermore, the new regime’s initial policies are likely to influence its international standing and extent of global support.
Outside Syria’s borders, Assad’s fall is already changing dynamics in the Middle East. First, quickly after HTS took control of Damascus, Israel and the United States conducted airstrikes against different targets in Syria. Most significantly, Israel targeted Assad’s military, hitting hundreds of strategic targets, including much of the Syrian Air Force and Navy, suspected chemical weapon manufacturing sites, and weapon factories. The Israel Defence Force (IDF) said, since the regime’s fall, that it has destroyed the majority of Syria’s strategic military assets.
Second, Assad’s long-term allies are evacuating their presence and military bases across Syria. As the regime collapsed, Iran sent airplanes to evacuate its military personnel from the country. More significantly, Russia has begun withdrawing from its major bases in western Syria. This is a major blow to Russia, who had invested heavily in the Assad regime for over a decade, fighting alongside the Syrian government during the civil war and providing it with arms. When HTS closed in on Damascus, Russia helped its ally once more by granting the Assad family asylum. This signalled Russia’s continuing support for the old regime, which explains why its military presence in Syria is no longer welcomed.
Third, Assad’s removal comes after an extended civil war, which itself was part of a series of revolutions and mass movements that spread across the Middle East starting in 2011. In Syria, and elsewhere, people took to the streets believing in the possibility of a democratic future, but Assad’s brutal suppression of these movements extinguished much of the people’s hope. However, HTS’s attack may inspire groups across the Middle East to challenge their states’ leaders. Such challenges could be detrimental to several regimes across the region. Public support for the regimes in many Arab states is thought to be eroded due to their responses to the war in Gaza. For dictatorial regimes across the region, the combination of attempted coups and weak support may be fatal.
Beyond the Middle East, the regime change could have significant global consequences as it is already forcing countries to reassess their stances towards Syria. For instance, many European countries are pausing the processing of asylum claims from Syrians. While this is likely caused by Europe’s general aversion toward immigration into the continent, it also partially reflects Europe’s hope that Syria could become a safer place under the HTS compared with the Assad regime.
The events which have taken place in the Middle East over the last year have destabilised the region and increased its susceptibility to extreme changes, as seen in Syria. The answers to many important questions — such as when Syria will achieve stability, what that stability will look like, and how it will affect the region — remain unanswered. However, the initial repercussions of the regime change are already significant and far-reaching. Crucially, it has led to a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East by weakening the Russian and Iranian stances in the region and opening the door for further disruption in regional leadership, both of which are poised to have global ramifications.
